IEBC Will Fall, Kenya Will Not Change!

I said it before, and I will unequivocally reiterate it here again - for purposes of clarity, the CORD led anti-IEBC protests are not going to end anytime soon. Not by a long shot!

Going by the (unconfirmed) shooting to death of 3 (peaceful) protesters in the streets of Homa Bay, 3 in Kisumu and 2 in Siaya, it is evidently clear even to a blind person that the police (or government if you may) has clearly doused the flames of discontent in gasoline. Political emotions have reached fever pitch in CORD strongholds, especially in Luo Nyanza.

Kenya will get treated to the unfortunate sights (and sounds) of chaos every other Monday of the week. Until something gives!

It is inconsequential how much the Jubilee government buries its head in the sand, hoping against hope that the demos will miraculously fizzle out like the Okoa Kenya referendum. CORD has already tasted the bitter outcome of failing spectacularly in their Saba Saba attempt to marshal ‘the mother of all rallies’ to march to statehouse (if Jubilee did not yield to their calls for dialogue). As if that was not enough, their Okoa Kenya bid and the Firimbi movement storm in a teaspoon fell flat on their face due to haphazard planning and execution.

Buoyed by the success of their call for resignation of Anne Waiguru and other Cabinet Secretaries implicated in graft and financial impropriety, CORD has been spoiling for a fight. And knowing how indefatigable CORD leader, Raila Odinga is, it is a matter of make or break. Actually, CORD is very content with the constant teargassing, the police brutality on protesters and the killing of demonstrators every Monday. It is what they want. It is sensational and it satiates the hunger for political prominence and relevance. Without bloodshed, demonstrations (or reformist revolutions if you want) are generally futile and devoid of melodrama.

UhuRuto cannot just wish this one away. This is here to stay! And unfortunately, the longer it plays out, the more it succeeds in portraying the Jubilee government (to the international community) as tyrannical and anti-reformist.

For the soft spoken Isaac Hassan and his beleaguered contingent of IEBC commissioners, there is definitely no escaping this either. You must be dispensed with; courtesy of raw power politics of Kenya. You may have or have not eaten the wings the chicken, but that is inconsequential now. It is not about you. This is nothing personal. It is politics, Kenyan style. Your performance is being cancelled and as such, you will have to eventually bow out of the stage and lick your wounds as Jubilee ponders on where to repost you. Either from CORD or Jubilee, you will buckle under pressure. Whichever way you are out! And even if you leave office due to pressure from Jubilee, CORD will still have to take the glory of ‘fighting for the transformation of the electoral body’

In the wake of this power-play, and as is the wont, when two giants duel, the grass must bear the brunt. The grass here is Kenya and Kenyans. As it is the citizens are already paying the ultimate price with their lives and property. This fight is not about having the interests of Kenyans at heart. If it were, the stakeholders would be worried about the measures to put in place once Isaac and his team vacate office. 

The forest might change, but the monkeys will remain the same

The kind of solution suggested by CORD to have political representatives appointed into the commission is short-lived, parochial and does not hold any water.  For one, it seeks to safeguard (individual) interests of political parties (and their individual patrons) instead of thinking about the future of Kenya when all these parties will have disintegrated down in the middle to form other political parties – which will in turn seek to also safeguard their own interests in that future by having their own set of representatives in the commission.

What are the chances of CORD or Jubilee sticking it out five years down the line? Very slim! What happens in that future when alliances will have disintegrated to form other unholy alliances? Another round of spirited efforts to have new representatives of new political outfits into the new electoral commission!

A monkey is still a monkey

A costly affair it will be. And how does having a representative from CORD or Jubilee or any other ragtag political vehicle ensure that the said political representatives are not compromised, just like their predecessors? It does not! Few Kenyans have the capacity to say no to chicken, especially when presented with the juiciest part. In which case, the electoral body will still remain at the beck and call of the deepest pockets in Kenya. A monkey is still a monkey; and a Kenyan is still Mkenya!

But hey, IEBC must go home; because baba has said so! More importantly, it is because it is under tight grips of Jubilee. For Jubilee, CORD must follow the constitution in ejecting the IEBC out of office. That they have been compromised is irrelevant to Jubilee. More importantly, it is because Jubilee has bought favour in the commission.

Let the teargas continue to rain on Monday.